Why Mass Transit Isn't Better

"Airline travel has become nearly as energy efficient as Amtrak." From the Coyote Blog.

The report linked in his post is from the Department of Energy and is 385 pages. It is very interesting because it shows that energy intensity (BTUs per passenger mile) for buses is decreasing while passenger cars are getting better. If the trend continues it will be less energy intensive for vehicle travel. This is not surprising and does not take into account the economic loses of inflexible routes and the schedule costs versus on-demand travel for an automobile.

The beneficial claims of rail efficiency and high-speed rail in particular are very suspect from the information report. Airline efficiency is encroaching on rail efficiency and, again, if the trend continues the energy benefits of air travel may exceed rail travel. Rail will never replace longer trips across the country. I don't intend to spend four days of a seven day vacation traveling by rail just from Detroit to Washington, D.C. - ignoring the insane prices as well. Business travelers will surely not travel more than a few hours by rail even with the kabuki theatre we call the TSA.

Rail has economic losses besides energy intensity. Rail can work but show me it works without subsidy. Amtrak has some very successful lines in the Northeast that would survive unsubsidized. Rail is more inflexible once the high speed routes are established. Business and industry shift geographically over time. The rust belt (note the name) once was the economic engine of the United States. Now different industries in different regions are our economic drivers. There is no reasonable way high-speed rail would substantially supplant air travel for vacationers nor business travelers. Federal rail initiatives will be an expensive long-term subsidized boondoggle that will cost the taxpayers dearly.

Quote of the Day

If You're Not Paying for It; You're the Product

Hat Tip: Lifehacker

Famous Last Words

Regarding the sovereign debt crisis that appears to be heading away from Ireland towards Spain with a stopover in Portugal.

From Portugal we from the Financial Times:

Portugal has denied as "totally false" reports that it is under pressure ... to request an international financial bail-out.

And also from the Financial Times we are told by Spain:

Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, Spanish prime minister, on Friday ruled out any rescue package for the country ... "I should warn those investors who are short selling Spain that they are going to be wrong and will go against there own interests," Mr. Zapatero said

For a refresher below are some other not so prescient quotes.

First we have Ireland and this quote from the Irish Times:

Asked about the four-year plan, Mr Cowen said: “In coming weeks it will be finalised and then we will deal with it, and then we’ll have the budget”.

Asked to comment on reports, citing eurozone sources, that negotiations were going on behind the scenes for emergency funding for Ireland from the EU, he said: “We have made no application whatever for funding.

And that was November 13th, 2010. About a week before bail-out talks were admitted.

Then we had these quotes on January 29th 2010 from Business Week:

European Union policy makers have no “plan B” to help Greece, the bloc’s top economic official said, and Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said he’s not aware of talks of a possible rescue.

and this gem, while still true is unlikely to last.

“There is no bailout problem,” Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “Greece will not default. In the euro area, default does not exist.”

In the not so distant future that comment will leave a mark.

Moving to this side of the pond we have Dick Fuld's "I'm gonna burn the shorts" comment on CNBC before Lehman Brothers blow up.

New Light Bulb Technology

There is a new threat to CFL bulbs besides LED. It is call Electron Stimulated Luminescence or ESL for short. It recently got UL Laboratories approval and could be on sale in the US in early 2011. This technology appears to have a lot of benefits.
- No mercury or disposal problems
- Long life
- Dimmer support from standard dimmers
- Cheaper than LED solutions

Have a look at VU1 Corporation's website. I expect to be an early adopter. I hate those CFLs and LEDs are still quite expensive.

Currency War

So as we debase our currency we are holding China to account for basically offsetting our devaluations. If China devalues just to keep level with the US dollar is their fault and the US is blameless?

Currency Devaluation Non-Solution

On the October 13th "Breakfast with Dave", David Rosenberg correctly points out that currency revaluation by the Chinese will not likely have the outcome desired.

Since 1985, dollar-yen has sunk nearly 70% and yet the US has the same bilateral deficit with Japan today as it had then. So why does everyone think that a Chinese revaluation will necessarily clear out any perceived imbalances? Maybe if U.S. policy encouraged thrift over asset-based consumption growth, these trade imbalances would dissipate more quickly.

Voting is Not the Will of the People

Imagine four people choosing three types of fruit from a menu. They decide to be democratic and vote. If 2 people like bananas and each of the other participants choose an apple and pear then, accordingly, the will of the people will be to eat bananas for this meal. For the two people who did not get their primary choice - the will of the people is not so great. Voting for a politician is very similar. One side wins and claims "the will of the people" therefore it is just.

Additionally, this type of voting does not reflect intensity of desire. If the two people causing the majority like bananas slightly more than the other two fruits, they would have been content with any choice. Further, what if the two people left out despise bananas and adore their respective choices? As we see in voting the will of the people is not always reflective of intensity of desire.

Democratic voting is preferable than a dictatorial situation but I present this for educational purposes. With the election coming up - regardless of who wins it will not be the will of the people.