Sunday, October 12, 2008

Plunging of the Baltic Dry Index

I am not the first to notice this as a quick Google search will confirm, but declining consumer demand is probably not causing the plunge in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). It may be much worse, though the demand reduction is certainly accelerating.

The credit lines cargo carriers use to purchase fuel and the Letters of Credit buyers/sellers of that cargo use to verify their financial worthiness could be hindered by the credit contraction. If Letters of Credit or short-term loans cannot be secured, then shipping does not happen. This could be more a symptom of supply disruptions then of demand destruction.

Let us hope the credit markets for non-financials don't come unglued.

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