Sunday, January 4, 2009

Taxpayer Losses are GMAC's Gain

The GMAC bailout really is bothering me. Under TARP the government loaned GMAC $5,000,000,000 which, ironically, also allowed it to qualify as a bank. In lending, the Treasury received 8% dividend paying preferred shares. GMAC immediately began loaning out the money to consumers. On the surface this sounds good but this was a horrible deal - for the taxpayer. This isn't even a normal government policy that is not well thought out. It is downright wealth transfer. A sneaky end-run to subsidize the "American" auto industry.

I want to explain in simple terms what the government did. Say you borrow $100 from your mom and then loan a $1 to each of your 95 friends for 5 years, keeping $5 for yourself since it will take time to track who you loaned the money to. Great deal until you have to pay your 8% interest to mom since those were the terms on her preferred shares. And that 8% comes due every year. Your friends on the other hand got 5 year, 0% loans. And don't forget to factor in the friends who will never pay you back - say 3% - very modest considering you lowered your standards substantially almost ensuring your loan loss will be much higher than 3%.

Based on the above business model you would need to make at least 16% (5% yourself, 3% loss, 8% interest due) on those loans to break even. Not only is that not likely, that is not mathematically possible. So this means the government loaned an organization money that is guaranteed to produce a loss on the loans given. A loss exceeding $800,000,000 the first year if your origination costs are 5%. Even if GMAC paid itself nothing it still loses $550,000,000 in the first year alone.

It Gets Worse
Well, once GMAC loans out there initial $5,000,000,000 they are out of money. Unless, since they are now a bank, they can package those loans up and sell them. Guess who is buying consumer debt at low rates? It is not private investors, so that leaves the Federal Researve and the U.S. Treasury. GMAC will use the bundled loans to give as collateral to the Fed/Treasury who will value them at face value and allow another round of auto loan securitization. Once in the hands of the Treasury (taxpayers) any losses fall to them not GMAC, the loan originator. That would be you and I. This is just an ugly misuse of taxpayer money to ultimately subsidize GM.

Please consider joining the "DO NOT BUY AMERICAN" (GM at least) crowd. I can't imagine buying a car with 36 month warranty from a company with a 3 month lifeline anyhow. I might recommend Ford or one of the many other auto manufacturers. Many of which are build in America.

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