Thus, properly perceived, the private sector of the US economy is not growing and cannot grow with the price of oil above $40-$60. Gov't deficits of 10%+ of GDP (and 5-6% less the decline in receipts) merely give the appearance that the overall GDP is no longer contracting, whereas the private sector continues contracting yoy at a rate which occurred during the worst recessions of the 20th century.
A "double dip" for the US private sector will likely occur from a growth rate at or below zero.
My hope is that the government cuts spending, reduces "entitlements", and consumers de-leverage as orderly as possible as soon as possible. Then we can borrow again.
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