Recoveryless Recovery

Last week's Q2 and Q1 GDP were, in a word, ugly. We appear to be in a recoveryless recovery. Below a chart from Calculated Risk highlighting unemployment compared to other recessions going back to 1948.

David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates, predicts a 99% chance of recession by 2012. He left the 1% margin for wiggle room. This is a balance sheet recession and he views this more of a continuation of the recession absent the massive fiscal stimulus covering up the downturn. Watch David here.